NBA Winner Odds: Who Are the Top Contenders to Lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy?

As the NBA season barrels towards its climax, the singular question on every fan’s mind is who will ultimately lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy. It’s a conversation fueled by stats, star power, and that intangible feeling of momentum. Having spent countless hours not just watching the real league but also immersed in virtual hardwood battles, I’ve come to appreciate the nuances of championship pressure in a unique way. The reference material about a basketball video game’s atmosphere—the layered crowd noise that crescendos in late-game drama, the distinct feel of a high-stakes Finals broadcast versus a semi-pro game—that’s more than just game design. It’s a mirror to the real emotional architecture of a title run. It reminds me that the journey to the championship isn’t a monolith; it’s a gradient of pressure, from the grinding regular season to the deafening roar of a Game 7. And right now, a handful of teams are navigating that gradient, separating themselves as true contenders.

Let’s start with the obvious powerhouse: the Boston Celtics. Finishing the regular season with a league-best 64-18 record, they’ve been the analytical darlings all year. Their net rating of +11.7 is historically great, a number that screams dominance. With a starting five that can all shoot, handle, and defend, they present a nightmare matchup puzzle. Jayson Tatum is a bona fide MVP candidate, and Jrue Holiday’s acquisition was a masterstroke for their playoff toughness. Yet, watching them, I sometimes get a vibe that’s almost too polished. They can occasionally lack the visceral, chaotic energy that defines playoff survival. It’s like they’re playing a perfect simulation sometimes, and I wonder if they’ve built up a callous against the kind of desperate, scrappy play that underdogs bring in May and June. They are, without a doubt, the favorites, and sportsbooks currently peg their odds at around +220. But in the playoffs, perfection can be fragile.

Out West, the Denver Nuggets remain the reigning standard. Nikola Jokić is, in my opinion, the best basketball player on the planet—a maestro whose game is built for the slow grind of a seven-game series. Their championship pedigree is their biggest asset. They have that calm, like the commentary team in a video game that doesn’t get hysterical during the regular season but whose tone shifts palpably for the Finals. They know the script. However, their bench depth has taken a hit, and the Western Conference is a brutal gauntlet. Teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, with their youthful athleticism and a potential MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Dallas Mavericks, powered by the electrifying Luka Dončić-Kyrie Irving duo, are legitimate threats. The Mavs, in particular, scare me. When Dončić gets hot, it feels like one of those video game moments where the crowd noise becomes a blanket of sound, and every possession is life or death. They have the star power to steal a series against anyone.

Then there are the wild cards. The New York Knicks, fueled by Jalen Brunson’s incredible scoring binges and a city’s desperate hope, play with a physicality that’s contagious. The Minnesota Timberwolves, with their towering defense anchored by Rudy Gobert, can suffocate even the best offenses. But for me, the most fascinating dark horse is the Los Angeles Clippers. When healthy—a massive "if"—their quartet of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook possesses a staggering ceiling. Kawhi in playoff mode is a different entity, a player who operates with the cold efficiency of a programmed assassin. The problem, of course, is health. Their season has been a rollercoaster, much like playing through a "MyCareer" mode with unexpected storyline injuries that derail your progress. If they click at the right time, they can beat anyone. But that’s a very big "if."

So, who wins it all? The analyst in me looks at the numbers and sees Boston. Their path is the cleanest, and their talent is overwhelming. But the fan in me, the one who’s felt the digital sweat of a virtual playoff game and knows how a real arena’s energy can will a team to victory, leans towards experience. That’s why I keep circling back to Denver. Jokić, Jamal Murray, and that core have been there. They don’t get rattled by the halftime shows or the mascots on unicycles; they are locked into the game within the game. They understand that the championship isn’t won in a highlight reel but over hundreds of gritty possessions. My personal, slightly against-the-grain pick is the Nuggets to repeat. I’ll predict they meet Boston in the Finals and win in a tense, six-game series that comes down to execution in the final minutes, where the crowd noise isn’t just layered—it’s absolutely deafening. Whatever happens, the drama is guaranteed to be as big as it should be.